Marcia Guedes Portfolio

Google Ads Regression algorithm​

1. Project Overview

  • This project involved the creation of a hypothetical yet coherent dataset comprising 500 Google Ads campaigns, focusing on critical performance metrics essential for understanding campaign effectiveness.

2. Key Metrics

The dataset includes:

  • Campaign Name: Identifier for each campaign.
  • Clicks: Total number of clicks on the ads.
  • Impressions: Total number of times the ads were displayed.
  • CPC (Cost Per Click): Average cost incurred for each click.
  • CTR (Click-Through Rate): Percentage of impressions that resulted in clicks.
  • Conversions: Total number of conversions attributed to the campaigns.
  • Conversion Rate (CVR): Percentage of clicks that resulted in conversions.

3. Data Preparation

Using Python, the dataset underwent extensive preprocessing to ensure high quality and reliability:

  • Data Type Transformation: Correct formatting for analysis compatibility.
  • Data Cleaning: Removal of null values, duplicates, and extra spaces.
  • Outlier Removal: Statistical methods were used to identify and eliminate outliers.
  • Data Normalization: Standardization techniques were applied to enhance modeling effectiveness.

4. Statistical Analysis and Visualization

  • A series of statistical analyses explored relationships among variables, complemented by visualizations that clearly presented findings. Notable visualizations included:
    • Scatter Plots: To show the correlation between CPC and predicted conversions.
    • Histograms: To analyze the distribution of clicks and impressions.
    • Box Plots: To identify variations and outliers in campaign performance metrics.

5. Predictive Modeling

  • The primary objective of this analysis was to accurately predict the number of conversions for each campaign based on clicks, impressions, and CPC. Multiple regression techniques were applied, including:

    • Multiple Linear Regression
    • Ridge Regression
    • Lasso Regression
  • The effectiveness of these models was measured by their R² scores:

    • Multiple Linear Regression: R² Score of 69.45%
    • Ridge Regression: R² Score of 69.45%
    • Lasso Regression: R² Score of 69.43%

These scores indicate a strong relationship between the independent variables and the predicted conversions, demonstrating the models’ capability to forecast campaign performance accurately.

6. Conclusion

  • This analysis emphasizes the significant impact of data-driven decision-making in digital marketing.
  • By effectively predicting conversions, marketers can optimize their strategies, improve campaign outcomes, and maximize return on investment.
  • The ability to anticipate conversion rates allows for targeted adjustments to campaigns, enhancing overall marketing effectiveness.
Example Model using Data Input 200 Clicks, 1800 Impressions and $1 CPC.